Why Biden is los­ing to Trump and the GOP

The polls increas­ing­ly show Pres­i­dent Joe Biden could lose his reelec­tion bid next year, despite deep Repub­li­can dys­func­tion and gen­er­al­ly pos­i­tive eco­nom­ic data.
Democ­rats have so far been split between two reac­tions: pan­ic and denial.
Let’s first dis­cuss denial. Giv­en the sor­ry state of pub­lic polling in 2023, it’s pos­si­ble the polls are wrong. They are cer­tain­ly ear­ly, more than a year out from the 2024 elec­tion, which is cer­tain­ly too soon to be pre­dic­tive.
Some will even argue that the polls are “skewed” against Biden, which is usu­al­ly the hall­mark of a los­ing campaign’s sup­port­ers. Remem­ber how well “unskew­ing” the polls worked for Mitt Rom­ney in 2012, at a time when there were seri­ous rea­sons to at least ques­tion whether Pres­i­dent Barack Oba­ma would be able to repli­cate his minor­i­ty and mil­len­ni­al sup­port from 2008 (spoil­er alert: he was).
The unskew­ers are them­selves split on who ben­e­fits from exces­sive­ly pes­simistic pollin …