Investors now see no inter­est rate cut before elec­tion in major blow to Biden

Investors now peg greater than even odds that there will not be a sin­gle inter­est rate cut until after the Novem­ber elec­tion, a mar­ket out­look that com­pli­cates Pres­i­dent Joe Biden‘s reelec­tion bid.
Just four months ago, investors were pric­ing in up to six inter­est rate cuts from the Fed­er­al Reserve in 2024, with most expect­ing that the first cut would have hap­pened in March. But on Tues­day, as top Fed offi­cials hud­dle in Wash­ing­ton, D.C., investors think the Fed will hold off until at least Novem­ber.
Investors implied a near­ly 52% prob­a­bil­i­ty that the Fed will hold rates steady dur­ing its Sep­tem­ber meet­ing and then would cut dur­ing its Novem­ber meet­ing, which hap­pens just days after one of the most polit­i­cal­ly charged pres­i­den­tial elec­tions in mod­ern his­to­ry, accord­ing to the CME Group’s Fed­Watch tool, which cal­cu­lates the prob­a­bil­i­ty using futures con­tract prices for r …