IFO self-analy­sis finds ‘no clear bias’ in pre­dic­tion errors

IFO self-analysis finds ‘no clear bias’ in prediction errors

(The Cen­ter Square) — In a self-review, the Inde­pen­dent Fis­cal Office found its state rev­enue pro­jec­tions to be pret­ty spot-on. 
In fis­cal year 2022–23, IFO esti­mates had a $2.7 bil­lion (6.1%) dif­fer­ence from actu­al rev­enues — but 2023–24 was much clos­er, with only a $273 mil­lion (0.6%) dif­fer­ence from actu­al rev­enues.
Dif­fi­cul­ties from the pan­dem­ic had made pre­dic­tions trick­i­er, but the last fis­cal year was the clos­est fore­cast since 2017–18.
“For four of the twelve fis­cal years, the IFO offi­cial esti­mate has been rough­ly with­in one-half per­cent­age point of act …